I’m new to this group and I’m curious about your opinions on crypto, especially BTC, as a long term investment over something like 15-20 years.
If I don’t worry about the usual price swings and I keep my private keys secure, plus store my coins in a cold wallet without third parties, and if nothing catastrophic happens like a nuclear war, can I be considered safe in the long run?
My concern is that in about 5-7 years, governments around the world will start to impose stricter rules on crypto. This might make it as cumbersome as dealing with banks because of KYC and AML regulations.
It might reach a point where you can buy, transfer, and trade crypto freely, but to convert it back to fiat, you’ll have to show a lot of paperwork like ID, address proof, income proof, tax documentation, and a complete history of all transactions.
To do anything with your coins legally, you’ll need to have perfect documentation, which means we might lose the option of buying crypto from non-verified or untrusted sources like P2P cash deals. That pretty much leaves bank transfers and credit card purchases as the only way to invest in crypto now.
It’s a tough situation because most banks currently dislike crypto transactions and could freeze your accounts if they find any.
I’ve heard people say that there will always be some country that embraces crypto, and you could just go there to exchange your crypto for fiat. But considering how quickly banks across the globe have adopted KYC/AML rules, I’m skeptical that in 5-7 years any place will still be free for crypto users.
So now I’m wondering:
Am I being unreasonable with my worries?
What’s the safest method to buy crypto now, so I can have the necessary paper trail for any future regulations?
None of the concerns you mentioned should make any investment bad.
Focus on the basic qualities of an asset to see if it’s a good investment or just a gamble. An investment should have some solid backing that could appreciate, while speculation only needs you to find someone who will pay more later.
If nothing catastrophic happens like a nuclear war, can I be considered safe in the long run?
No, it’s not safe in the long run. Technology changes quickly, and many unpredictable events can happen. Who knows if in a few years a new tech will come up that makes BTC worthless? There’s no way to predict that.
Think of Kodak and their film business. They weren’t overtaken by another film company but by the digital camera.
There’s nothing unique about BTC that makes it untouchable. It just got a head start. Credit cards or national banks might create their own crypto making BTC less relevant. New cryptos may offer faster, cheaper, and safer transactions.
Don’t see BTC as an investment; it’s basically a gamble. By putting money in BTC, you’re just hoping that someone else will pay more later based on the idea that demand will keep growing, like the tulip bubble. If you do not truly understand the market, then you are just hoping for luck.
You are free to buy that casino chip and take your chances, just be aware of the stakes involved and make sure you know what you’re getting into.
Larkin said: @smart1
No one disagrees, but it has kept its price without real intrinsic value.
Buddy
a. Many have mentioned it does have actual value. It’s been used to make items and has held value since civilization began because it is malleable and resists corrosion.
b. These practical applications are why people value it, not just its scarcity. BTC has a limited amount and mining will eventually stop, but that doesn’t matter if it can’t be used effectively. It can’t replace any physical barter methods due to transaction costs and speed.
c. It can be regulated at the moment of transaction. Those points can be controlled and shut down. Transactions can be traced back. Essentially, it can only be used until authorities say otherwise.
@smart1
Buddy, I understand it has real value. But its higher price isn’t based on real demand in those areas, it’s based on belief in that value, similar to bitcoin.
Breck said:
Just as viable as tulip bulbs were in the Netherlands back in 1636.
An asset that produces nothing, generates no real value, and relies on hope for higher prices is basically a bubble.
The comparison to tulip bulbs shows a misunderstanding of money’s history and how Bitcoin operates. Also, the tulip bubble was short-lived. Bitcoin has been around much longer.
An asset doesn’t need to create anything to have worth. Its value lies in the network and it grows rapidly. This is seen in its price.
@Reuben4
It’s just the older generation that missed out on Bitcoin who are still upset. It’s getting recognized as a legitimate small part of many portfolios now. Big finance companies are putting time and resources into it for a reason.
Sure it’s risky, but comparing it to the tulip bubble is just out of touch now.