This is a post I made about the Bitcoin price prediction, shared 8 days ago by the analyst team at Spot On Chain. They based their models on a detailed dataset, looking at historical trends and market factors like Bitcoin halving events, interest rate cycles, ETF performance, VC interest in new cryptocurrencies, and historical selling pressure from Bitcoin miners.
Interestingly, their short-term predictions have lined up correctly so far. Check out the image below
Man, 48% chance doesn’t really mean much
It’s basically a fifty-fifty situation lol
Smart said:
Man, 48% chance doesn’t really mean much
It’s basically a fifty-fifty situation lol
But it clearly says 63% chance in the screenshot
Smart said:
Man, 48% chance doesn’t really mean much
It’s basically a fifty-fifty situation lol
But it clearly says 63% chance in the screenshot
That’s just for the mid-term outlook, which is for the second half of the year.
The initial statement for short-term, which is now, shows 48%.
Smart said:
Man, 48% chance doesn’t really mean much
It’s basically a fifty-fifty situation lol
Which is still a probability.
After the halving, I think we might see a big rally or price pump.
A friend of mine has been saying this since 2023 … it seemed pretty obvious with all the market manipulation going on.
The big players drop prices so they can buy more before the next run-up.
They did something similar when it went from 20k to 70k … it was clear most take profit points would hit just above the all-time high. You don’t need to be an expert to notice that.
@Bob
How does someone manipulate the price down?
How can I push the price back to $100 by selling some to buy a few bitcoins, then have it go up to $100,000?
Daire said:
@Bob
How does someone manipulate the price down?
How can I push the price back to $100 by selling some to buy a few bitcoins, then have it go up to $100,000?
Crypto’s overall market cap is tiny compared to the stock market.
If you sell off $200m in stocks, it’s nothing major. But selling off $200m in BTC? By the time you’re halfway through, the price will have dropped even more. The smaller the market cap of the cryptocurrency, the more drastic it is.
If a coin is worth only $500 million and you sell $100m, the price will dive. This phenomenon is what they call exit liquidity (selling without causing a crash).
@Angel
BTC market cap is on the same level as META’s sad face
@Bob
Or maybe prices just change and fluctuate because that’s how markets work… The ‘Big Players’ aren’t controlling it
It’s really frustrating that this forum always jumps to conspiracy theories to explain normal market behavior.
@Halston
I can’t believe people still think in 2024 that the market isn’t manipulated haha. How do people this naive get through life laughing
Let me guess, you also think we went to war in the Middle East to ‘spread democracy’?
@Dex
Come on, it’s naive to think you know everything just because you made your first investment
I’m betting you’re a teen with no life experiences lol
@Halston
This market is far from normal … the manipulation is very clear thanks to the involvement of the big players. Just look at the first two cycles, the price fluctuations are obviously unusual.
2017 was straightforward, 2021 was strange, and this time is even stranger because institutional investors came into a small market … Blackrock has $120 billion under management. They could easily lower the price with their trading volume.
@Bob
The trends are basically the same… sure, it’s not exactly the same. People buy and sell, prices go up and down, that’s how markets function. Nothing strange here.
If a few entities were in control, that would mean BTC is already broken. But it’s not.
@Halston
People don’t sell at a loss unless they do it by mistake.
It’s not broken, I’m not saying that, but there’s clear price manipulation happening.
Bob said:
@Halston
People don’t sell at a loss unless they do it by mistake.
It’s not broken, I’m not saying that, but there’s clear price manipulation happening.
Many people do sell at a loss. How do you know they’re selling at a loss? A lot of people are way ahead. It’s up about 4 times in just the last year. They might be taking profits.
@Halston
A drop from 63k to 57k and then back to 62k is just ‘normal’ trading in a week haha
Bob said:
@Halston
A drop from 63k to 57k and then back to 62k is just ‘normal’ trading in a week haha
Sure, why not? That’s not a big fluctuation.
You’re probably new here.
Bob said:
@Halston
A drop from 63k to 57k and then back to 62k is just ‘normal’ trading in a week haha
Sure, why not? That’s not a big fluctuation.
You’re probably new here.
In just a week? You’re definitely new 
Show some historical data where BTC had a correction of several hundred billion in under a week.
