I have been investing in traditional stocks and bonds for over 30 years. Recently, I started getting into pre-IPO startups too.
For these investments, I can figure out their value based on things like future cash flow and other usual ways of valuing stuff.
But now I have a chance to buy a cryptocurrency before it hits the market, similar to a pre-IPO but for crypto. I am wondering what it will be worth once it starts trading. I guess it could be anywhere from $0.10 to $2.00 since I got it for $0.02. It should start trading next week.
From what I have seen, people rank different cryptos based on how useful they are or something, then compare their market cap with other similar cryptos.
The market cap is the total number of coins multiplied by the price of each coin. For example, the 50th ranked coin right now is Kusama (KSM), and its market cap is $3.3 billion.
But one problem is that some cryptos have built-in dilution. There might be 1 million coins now, but in 5 years, it could be 10 million. I am not sure people take this into account.
So how do you decide what these cryptos should be worth? This feels like a big puzzle to solve and could lead to a lot of money.
There are people who try to analyze cryptos like stocks using valuation concepts, but it’s more guesswork and speculation. That’s not necessarily bad though, just shows the limits of trying to use traditional finance methods on crypto.
Some interesting ideas I’ve seen come from folks who’ve worked in both stocks and crypto. Here are some good resources:
MapleLeafCap/FoliusVentures (a former hedge fund guy now in crypto) has a great Web3 DeFi guide here.
Chris Burniske (used to work at ARK) has a podcast episode on valuing cryptoassets here, and his book “Cryptoassets” might be helpful, especially the middle part if you already know the basics.
Justin Drake from the Ethereum Foundation talks about how they approach valuation in this interview.
The best argument I’ve seen for actual value in crypto comes from deflationary coins that create dividends (like Ethereum post-EIP 1559). I modeled it out using a discounted cash flow approach with a stock buyback twist, and honestly, it felt more real than some SaaS companies I’ve looked at.
To those who keep saying crypto equals $0, remember the market doesn’t care if you sound smart. Dismissing crypto without doing real research is no different from blindly hyping up a random coin. There’s a lot more to this space than people realize, and for those willing to dig in, there’s opportunity.
Jasper said: @Onyx
Thanks for the thorough response! That’s the kind of answer I was hoping for.
I agree there’s something valuable in this space. The dismissive folks just don’t understand it yet.
Glad it helped! Honestly, I’d respect the crowd that says no value more if they backed up their claims with actual bets, like shorting crypto or running market-neutral strategies with leveraged short positions. It’s easy to make bold statements, but harder to put money behind them.
It’s like figuring out the value of regular money. The currency itself might not have value, but the social and economic factors around it do. So, some cryptos will be stronger than others based on what’s supporting them.
I’m curious, why did you buy this specific crypto? What’s special about it?
(For me, the features that crypto fans like to talk about, like irreversible transactions, seem more like problems. Most people prefer systems where a trusted party can reverse a transaction, like Visa or PayPal. But that’s a separate topic)
True, but once you get past that, what’s the real use case?
There are hundreds of coins out there, what makes each one special?
If you’re building a useful network like Ethereum, it might not be great if the coin’s price goes up. New users get less value per dollar spent on your network. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the network to issue new coins to keep the price low and attract more users?
@Wei
I mainly bought it to learn more about crypto. When I have money in something, I pay more attention. I got it through Republic.co, where I also invest in startups. I put in a small amount that I can afford to lose.
The crypto I bought is described here https://cere.network/. They call it a decentralized data cloud, but honestly, I’m not really sure how that works or how the token’s value could change based on its use.
@Jasper
I get the basic idea of a decentralized data cloud. You’d split an encrypted file into smaller pieces and spread them out over a bunch of computers. You’d need to save each piece on multiple machines so you don’t lose data if one computer drops out, kind of like RAID storage. I could see how crypto could be used to buy and sell storage on the network.
But honestly, the description on their site is filled with buzzwords, and it’s hard to figure out what their real goal is.
The most important thing to look at is tokenomics. You mentioned dilution, but there’s also stuff like burning tokens to consider.
Basically, you need to research each token on your own, as there’s no simple price-to-earnings ratio or anything like that.
Also, retail investors have easier access to crypto than stocks, which in my opinion inflates the market cap. There’s less regulation, for better or worse.
In the end, crypto is super high risk and super high reward. Be careful.