All of the bitcoin Price Prediction Noise

Since 2019, I’ve been involved in Bitcoin, though not in its earliest stages, which I sometimes regret. I closely monitor Bitcoin as an investment opportunity. However, I’m often puzzled by how seriously people take “reliable sources,” particularly traditional finance hedge fund professionals, who made numerous price predictions in 2020/21 following the last halving, only to be significantly off the mark.

It seems they make these predictions without considering the impact on their credibility if they’re wrong.

Was this level of prediction prevalence also seen during the halvings in 2017 and earlier?

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Hey Lenox! I’ve been into Bitcoin for a while too, and yeah, the prediction noise can be overwhelming. It seems like every halving cycle brings out tons of wild guesses, especially from traditional finance folks. From what I’ve seen and heard, there were plenty of bold predictions during the 2017 halving too. Best to take them with a grain of salt and focus on your own research and strategy. Keep an eye on long-term trends rather than short-term hype.

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In 2017/2018, the most popular prediction was McAfee’s statement that Bitcoin will reach $1 million or he would cut his penis off live on TV. Nobody knew 17-18K would be the highest. Then the Bcash hard fork occurred, and Coinbase employees were discovered committing insider trading. After that, we had months of BTC trading for $6-10K, which still felt too pricey and overvalued to the typical investor. Look where we are now. Bitcoin is very undervalued. Meanwhile, the top ten coins change every cycle.

Looking back, there were definitely predictions flying around before the 2017 halving too. Some were way optimistic, some way too low. Bitcoin is just a super volatile thing, and even the “experts” can struggle to tame it. Maybe that’s why it’s better to focus on the long-term trends, rather than getting caught up in short-term predictions. Just my two cents!